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[00:00:23] Voice Over: Welcome to the [00:00:25] crazy, wealthy podcast with your host, Jonathan Blau, whether you're just starting [00:00:30] out or are an experienced investor, join Jonathan as he seeks to [00:00:35] illuminate and demystify the complexities of making consistently rational financial [00:00:40] decisions under conditions of uncertainty. He'll chat with professionals from the [00:00:45] advice world, entrepreneurs, executives, and business[00:00:50] [00:00:55]
[00:00:57] Jonathan Blau: Hello everybody, this is Jonathan Blau, and [00:01:00] I'm proud to be bringing to you the inaugural episode of our podcast [00:01:05] called Crazy Wealthy. I'm going to talk to you today about a little bit about [00:01:10] who I am, my background, and what led to the, uh, the. Uh, [00:01:15] idea of, uh, coming, uh, out with this podcast and what the purpose of it is and what we hope [00:01:20] to, uh, allow our audience to gain, uh, by becoming consistent, hopefully [00:01:25] consistent listeners.
[00:01:25] Jonathan Blau: So, um, I, I grew up, um, [00:01:30] in a, in a town called Bayside Queens in a middle class family. And, uh, [00:01:35] unfortunately, my dad, when he was a kid had rheumatic fever, which, uh, caused him to have [00:01:40] a mitral valve issue and ultimately have a stroke when I was 11. He [00:01:45] became paralyzed and, uh, and unfortunately lost him when I was 13, so I was kind [00:01:50] of forced to, uh, to, to, to make a decision at a crossroads, um, [00:01:55] to, to, to kind of realize that I had nothing to fall back on, uh, financially [00:02:00] in life.
[00:02:00] Jonathan Blau: Uh, and either, uh, sink or swim. And fortunately, uh, I was [00:02:05] able to, I was able to swim. Uh, but the reason I start with that story is, is [00:02:10] I, I today find myself in a position as the CEO of Fusion Family Wealth, where [00:02:15] we've, uh, we've been able to help many families learn to, uh, to do business. To, to protect and [00:02:20] grow their wealth over the years and, uh, and, and by doing that, we've actually been able [00:02:25] to, uh, to build wealth for our own family.
[00:02:27] Jonathan Blau: So there's nothing in my professional life [00:02:30] and personal life that's been more satisfying than being able to accomplish those things and having [00:02:35] been on both sides of the wealth spectrum growing up where I didn't have the freedoms [00:02:40] to, to pursue things because, uh, because of the, um, the inability to access [00:02:45] money, uh, as a tool, uh, and now having.
[00:02:48] Jonathan Blau: And on the other side, where [00:02:50] I'm able to give my family and help my clients make sure that they can [00:02:55] access that tool successfully and consistently, um, that'll help [00:03:00] me to, uh, to come to you from both perspectives with a podcast. And what [00:03:05] we'll try to do is we'll try to illuminate and demystify the complexities [00:03:10] involved with financial decision making.
[00:03:12] Jonathan Blau: So when we, when we make decisions [00:03:15] about money. Uh, particularly under conditions of uncertainty, we are, [00:03:20] uh, we're influenced unfortunately by what are called biases. And what these [00:03:25] biases are are really systematic errors in judgment, and they're [00:03:30] embedded in human nature. So no matter how smart we are, no matter how well educated [00:03:35] we are, we tend to make poor decisions when, when we are faced with, um, [00:03:40] with uncertainty and money.
[00:03:41] Jonathan Blau: And so. The good news about that is they are [00:03:45] systematic errors, meaning they're identifiable and they're predictable. Um, [00:03:50] behaviors tend to be repeated. So one, once we learn what [00:03:55] those behaviors are and how they're influencing us to, to make decisions that are against our [00:04:00] best interest, we can correct them.
[00:04:02] Jonathan Blau: And so that's what this podcast will attempt to [00:04:05] do by, by identifying them, not just, uh, via mic. [00:04:10] Podcast and my explanations, but actually inviting guests from both the [00:04:15] financial industry, the advice industry, accountants, attorneys who advise [00:04:20] wealthy, uh, families and, and hear their stories, their money stories, uh, [00:04:25] their clients, money stories, and, and experientially learn, uh, from them.[00:04:30]
[00:04:30] Jonathan Blau: What they've, what they've done, uh, as it relates to, uh, making [00:04:35] some errors in judgment about money or advising their clients who've made those errors. So it'd be [00:04:40] nice to hear some real life experiences. Uh, generally, when we talk about biases, there are two [00:04:45] types categorically, there's emotional biases. Uh, two of the most prominent [00:04:50] ones are what are called loss aversion bias and regret aversion bias.
[00:04:53] Jonathan Blau: So what's aversion [00:04:55] bias deals with the idea that we are, um, two [00:05:00] times more sensitive to the pain of a loss than we are to the pleasure [00:05:05] of an equivalent gain. So when we make decisions in life, there's an [00:05:10] asymmetry between the importance we put of avoiding a loss versus [00:05:15] pursuing a gain. And as investors, what happens is, it's why many [00:05:20] people are afraid to invest in, as owners of companies, or what's [00:05:25] What's more generically referred to as the stock market, and it's because the, the, the [00:05:30] frequent unpredictable as to timing and magnitude of declines [00:05:35] that are associated with investing as owners of companies, uh, don't appeal to our human [00:05:40] nature instinct to avoid, uh, losses.
[00:05:42] Jonathan Blau: And we're particularly, um. [00:05:45] Uh, sensitive to short term moves. So we have what's called myopic loss [00:05:50] aversion. We're nearsighted when it comes to losses. We look to avoid [00:05:55] losses in the short term. And so what we need to do to succeed, [00:06:00] particularly when it comes to investing, is to seek out strategies that [00:06:05] look to maximize our long term wealth.
[00:06:07] Jonathan Blau: particularly the ability to grow our money [00:06:10] in the face of inflation. But what we really innately look for is [00:06:15] not those strategies. We look for strategies that minimize the chance of short term [00:06:20] loss and maximize the chance of, of short term pleasure. And those are exactly [00:06:25] the opposite strategies than the ones that we need to maximize long term wealth.
[00:06:29] Jonathan Blau: So for example, [00:06:30] we might look to have too much of our money in cash, money markets, bonds and gold [00:06:35] in the short run so that we minimize our chance for long term, uh, [00:06:40] for short term loss. But those, those investments, bonds and gold and so forth, also [00:06:45] minimize our chance for long term wealth building. So we'll talk about how to, how to address loss [00:06:50] aversion bias, uh, identify it and overcome it.
[00:06:53] Jonathan Blau: And, and we'll also hear [00:06:55] from guests who have experienced those, those biases and how it's influenced [00:07:00] decisions that weren't really in their best interest in the long run. So, so emotional biases [00:07:05] like loss aversion and regret aversion are the two most common. Regret [00:07:10] aversion is actually, uh, much more painful than loss aversion because [00:07:15] long term regret never goes away.
[00:07:17] Jonathan Blau: So it's, it's one of the most painful, [00:07:20] um. One of the most painful emotional biases that we have and the problem that it [00:07:25] creates is that if we make an investment or financial decision [00:07:30] where the outcome didn't reflect what we wanted, it became so painful to us that [00:07:35] in order to avoid that feeling of regret in the future, we shy away [00:07:40] from engaging in any activity.
[00:07:41] Jonathan Blau: So if we had a bad experience in the stock market. [00:07:45] At one time or other, maybe we chased technology stocks in the late 1990s. [00:07:50] What happened to us is we stopped investing in stocks. We didn't, we [00:07:55] didn't admit that the error was the fact that we over concentrated and [00:08:00] weren't any, any longer investing, we were speculating on technology stocks or dot com [00:08:05] stocks.
[00:08:05] Jonathan Blau: And so that's what caused us to lose. And that regret. We're so [00:08:10] powerful that we said I'm never investing in stocks again because stocks don't work. [00:08:15] I'm just going to, what's, revert to what's called status quo bias. If I just leave the [00:08:20] money in cash, leave it the way it is, status quo, I will never have to face the [00:08:25] regret of, of, of a technology bubble bursting or anything like that again.
[00:08:28] Jonathan Blau: And so people will [00:08:30] accumulate cash and that becomes a very dangerous, uh, financial [00:08:35] decision for the longterm. So the other kind of bias, uh, outside of [00:08:40] emotional is called cognitive. So cognitive biases are really just systematic errors [00:08:45] that reflect faulty reasoning. So one example is called representative [00:08:50] bias.
[00:08:50] Jonathan Blau: If we see a coin flip, uh, for example, and it's flip, uh, [00:08:55] Eight times when we see five heads and then three, uh, [00:09:00] three tails, we're likely to think that maybe the next two will be [00:09:05] tails. Um, particularly if it's going to be a 10, a 10 flip, uh, series [00:09:10] and, and in reality, that's because that represents what we think coin [00:09:15] flip should look like 50, 50 outcome, but there's something called the law of large numbers.[00:09:20]
[00:09:20] Jonathan Blau: So. If we had the more coin flips that we have, the more likely we [00:09:25] are to see 50 50. So if we have 100 coin flips, we're likely to see the [00:09:30] outcomes be closer to 50 heads or tails, but we don't really [00:09:35] Appreciate the law of large numbers when we're thinking about things like probability, [00:09:40] uh, because it's our, uh, it's our reflexive mind or our system one mind [00:09:45] that's making decisions based on what's, uh, what we think represents the [00:09:50] stereotypical outcome that we should expect.
[00:09:51] Jonathan Blau: So, so that's one example in a coin flip. And it's the [00:09:55] same thing, by the way, when we, we have representative power. Bias, it's why people who are investing might [00:10:00] chase performance of a hot mutual fund or funding manager. Uh, they think [00:10:05] because it's had three or four good years in a row, the relative to other funds, [00:10:10] that it means that it's likely to have another three or four good years in a row.
[00:10:13] Jonathan Blau: When in fact, [00:10:15] oftentimes the opposite is likely. Because, uh, while, while straight good [00:10:20] performance relative to a benchmark seems to indicate that we can expect it going [00:10:25] forward. What it really usually does is it says, gee, if this manager outperformed for the last three or four [00:10:30] years, uh, there's something called reversion to the mean and competing with all these other managers, [00:10:35] they're likely to underperform for the next three or four for so that the average performance kind of [00:10:40] equals, uh, equals the performance of the market over time.
[00:10:43] Jonathan Blau: And so, so [00:10:45] representative bias in that way can actually hurt investor choices, uh, based on [00:10:50] based on our reflexive or, uh, or, or a system one mind, [00:10:55] which basically just looks for shortcuts in decision making. And those shortcuts often lead [00:11:00] to, uh, faulty reasoning. Uh, and. Representative biases is one example.[00:11:05]
[00:11:05] Jonathan Blau: Uh, another example is familiarity bias. We tend to like to own things and [00:11:10] invest in things that we're familiar with, thinking irrationally that those things will [00:11:15] help us more and hurt us less, always, than things that we're not familiar with. [00:11:20] And what that leads to is it leads to over concentrating, uh, in a smaller pool [00:11:25] of choices, whether it's investments or business, uh, businesses.
[00:11:29] Jonathan Blau: Uh, or [00:11:30] anything that we're engaged in, and it actually leads to increased risk. [00:11:35] So again, familiarity bias and representative bias, two examples of [00:11:40] faulty reasoning. Uh, then one of the things that's, that's another issue [00:11:45] when it comes to decision making, particularly when it comes to money, is we, we [00:11:50] tend to be overwhelmed with a tremendous amount of information.
[00:11:54] Jonathan Blau: [00:11:55] Particularly, uh, 24 hour financial news cycle, the internet and all the data available. [00:12:00] And what we, we fail to recognize is that data is not [00:12:05] an, is not, uh, knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom. Wisdom is an [00:12:10] accumulation of experiences That lead us to be able [00:12:15] to, uh, to understand how the data and the knowledge we've acquired can lead to [00:12:20] better decisions and, uh, and by, by looking at, um, all [00:12:25] of the information that we have, investors seem to feel like, wow, I'm equipped.
[00:12:29] Jonathan Blau: I don't need to have [00:12:30] any help. Uh, I have all this data. I can do it myself. One of the things that's [00:12:35] important that we hope to get across to everybody who listens to the podcast when it comes to [00:12:40] behavior and investing, investing success and success with money [00:12:45] decisions is one part intellect, what we know, and 99 parts temperament, what we [00:12:50] do.
[00:12:50] Jonathan Blau: So if you have the smartest, most well educated, um, uh, person [00:12:55] in a room of 10 people, and you have someone who never went past high school, and then you [00:13:00] have people who are successful entrepreneurs, and people who don't have to work, uh, [00:13:05] they're all equally likely to get To sell out every, uh, investment [00:13:10] that they own.
[00:13:10] Jonathan Blau: That's not a dot com investment to chase the dot com bubble in [00:13:15] 1999. And they're equally likely to sell out some or all of their portfolio in [00:13:20] the face of the 2008 to nine credit crisis, uh, in fear that their, [00:13:25] their, their stock portfolio is about to implode, uh, because of what was going on [00:13:30] with the economy and, um, and so, uh, human nature [00:13:35] is immutable.
[00:13:36] Jonathan Blau: It, it doesn't change and it doesn't discriminate [00:13:40] between old and young, rich and poor, educated and less educated, [00:13:45] uh, man and woman, we're all prone to make the same exact mistakes. So again, [00:13:50] the important thing to take away from that is that, uh, good investment and, and money [00:13:55] decisions are based one part intellect only what we know and, and [00:14:00] 99 parts temperament.
[00:14:01] Jonathan Blau: One of the examples I like to give is if, if we fly on an airplane. [00:14:05] We typically don't go to the pilot and interview them. We don't want [00:14:10] to, uh, ask and read about how the controls in the cockpit work in cases of [00:14:15] emergency so that we can take over and, and, uh, get in touch with the, with the pilot. [00:14:20] With the air traffic controller and start taking control.
[00:14:23] Jonathan Blau: Uh, we don't do that [00:14:25] because of what I call accessibility bias. That information is not easily [00:14:30] accessible or understandable. Uh, but when it comes to investing, we, we somehow think [00:14:35] because that information about, uh, valuation of. of companies [00:14:40] and price to earnings ratios and all of these sorts of things, money manager [00:14:45] performance versus others.
[00:14:46] Jonathan Blau: We think because that information is accessible, that [00:14:50] somehow having that information will enable us to become successful investors. It [00:14:55] won't. Any more than having the information about the, uh, about the controls in the cockpit [00:15:00] would enable us to successfully land an airplane. Uh, so, so it's important to [00:15:05] understand that just because the information is available, uh, information [00:15:10] data is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom.
[00:15:13] Jonathan Blau: The other thing that we [00:15:15] that we like is we like certainty. So, when it comes to certainty, what [00:15:20] the challenge in, in the industry that I'm in, the advisory, the wealth advisory [00:15:25] industry, is that the, the investor comes to the table looking for as [00:15:30] much certainty about their financial future as they can possibly garner.
[00:15:34] Jonathan Blau: [00:15:35] And the industry, unfortunately, generally, tends to address that need for [00:15:40] certainty by handling what I call the illusion. back to the client. What I [00:15:45] mean by that is they, they will tell the investor how many analysts, [00:15:50] security analysts that they employ, who will tell them which industries and companies are [00:15:55] about to perform better than the other industries and companies.
[00:15:58] Jonathan Blau: They'll tell them how [00:16:00] many economists they employ so that they will be able to tell the investor when the recession [00:16:05] is likely to come and, and use that information to get them in and out of the, uh, recession. [00:16:10] Investment markets opportunity and so economic forecasting can [00:16:15] consistently be done accurately, um, gaining, uh, timing advantage over the [00:16:20] market can consistently be done accurately.
[00:16:22] Jonathan Blau: So what we do to help [00:16:25] investors and we hope to help the podcast listeners. Gaining an understanding of is, [00:16:30] is that you need to learn to make consistently rational decisions, given [00:16:35] a constant state of uncertainty, rather than being handed the illusion [00:16:40] of certainty, uh, because that's only a band aid and ultimately, uh, the money decisions [00:16:45] will be negative, uh, when one has the illusion of certainty.
[00:16:48] Jonathan Blau: Um, and, and [00:16:50] a corollary to that is when we watch the financial news, one of the things I always hear that's a [00:16:55] little bit. Um, frustrating is they talk about the market hating uncertainty that, [00:17:00] that given what's going on with the war in Ukraine and given what's going on [00:17:05] with the Federal Reserve and the decisions that we don't yet know the outcome of to [00:17:10] raise interest rates, when they'll happen and what the magnitude will be, the market hates uncertainty, they say.[00:17:15]
[00:17:15] Jonathan Blau: And what that implies is that, At various times, there can be more or less [00:17:20] certainty and, and that's just a concept that doesn't make any sense. So as an example, [00:17:25] uh, there are studies that have looked at how many times the word certainty and financial [00:17:30] certainty appear in the newspaper. And based on those kinds of studies, it's been, uh, it's [00:17:35] been said that the, uh, period of time, uh, in the last 20 years or so, [00:17:40] that we had maximum, uh, Uh, certainty or minimum uncertainty was the [00:17:45] period right before the September 11th terrorist attacks like on September 10th [00:17:50] and and the period right before Bear Stearns Lehman Brothers went out of business [00:17:55] during the financial crisis.
[00:17:56] Jonathan Blau: In fact, Uh, I would say on September 10th [00:18:00] of 2001, we probably were never more certain, there was [00:18:05] probably never more certainty that we were about to have a terrorist attack. The only thing that, [00:18:10] that was different is we were oblivious to that risk on September 10th. But, [00:18:15] but we didn't have more or less certainty on September 10th.
[00:18:18] Jonathan Blau: Uh, and so it's very [00:18:20] important to understand that, um, that when you're watching the media and the news, [00:18:25] their job is to, uh, not advise us on how to make better financial [00:18:30] decisions. But to sell advertising and to get you to click on their [00:18:35] stories, uh, it's always going to be sensationalized. So falling for the narratives [00:18:40] of, of things like more or less, uh, uh, certainty, uh, can cause us to [00:18:45] abandon our plan for the wrong reasons at the wrong time.
[00:18:48] Jonathan Blau: Uh, the, the [00:18:50] illusion of control to us is much more persuasive than the [00:18:55] reality. of uncertainty. So we, we like to kind of do things where we [00:19:00] have a hand in it, thinking that the outcomes will be better if we're involved. [00:19:05] And, and in investing in particular, when, when human beings who are [00:19:10] emotional and hormonal and, and, and, and, and.
[00:19:14] Jonathan Blau: cognitively subject to [00:19:15] make, uh, decisions using rules of thumb instead of, uh, lengthy reasoning. [00:19:20] When, when they get their hand involved or we get our hand involved, usually the outcomes are, [00:19:25] are, are going to be far worse, not better. So, so that's something that, that people [00:19:30] have to kind of, um, Uh, face, it's hard to [00:19:35] accept that and particularly hard to accept if we, if we've achieved success in other areas of [00:19:40] our lives, if we've achieved success academically, if we've achieved success, [00:19:45] uh, in our careers, it's hard for us to accept that.
[00:19:48] Jonathan Blau: That, uh, us not [00:19:50] being involved will somehow in any endeavor lead to a better outcome. One example, [00:19:55] and one reason that happens is, is something called attribution bias or [00:20:00] S. U. S. where we actually influence the outcomes or [00:20:05] believe we influence the outcomes solely because of. our skill [00:20:10] set and our abilities, meaning that we don't really give a fair, uh, a [00:20:15] fair assessment of how much luck may have played a role.
[00:20:18] Jonathan Blau: And, and [00:20:20] luck, uh, is, is almost always present in the outcomes of decisions. [00:20:25] Uh, so, so it's important for us to understand that, uh, and by the way, [00:20:30] luck and risk are basically the same thing. Luck is just when an outside [00:20:35] factor influences the outcome and the outcome happens to be good. And risk is when an [00:20:40] outsized factor influences the outcome that happens to have been bad.
[00:20:44] Jonathan Blau: And [00:20:45] in life what we tend to do is we tend to attribute much more, [00:20:50] um, skill, uh, particularly if we're used to being [00:20:55] successful in our other endeavors, to the outcomes that we achieve when they're good. And we tend [00:21:00] to attribute, uh, Bad luck to the outcomes when they're bad. [00:21:05] So, so if we can reframe how we think about things, it would help us to, to make fewer [00:21:10] mistakes and have an open mind about, uh, about what we can control [00:21:15] and, and maybe getting outside, uh, outside help in informing our decisions and [00:21:20] not thinking we, we can and need to control everything.
[00:21:22] Jonathan Blau: So we'll talk about, we'll talk about the role of [00:21:25] luck, and one of the things I like to say is, is our experience in the world accounts for [00:21:30] about 0001 percent of everything that's ever happened, yet [00:21:35] it accounts for 80 percent of how we think the world works. So those all relate to, [00:21:40] uh, to our, our need for, for control and, and the illusion of certainty.
[00:21:44] Jonathan Blau: And [00:21:45] we'll talk about how to, how to kind of get around and overcome those. So what we're going to do is we're going to [00:21:50] come to everybody with this podcast on a monthly basis. We're also going to have [00:21:55] a shorter podcast that comes every two weeks called Fix It Fridays. [00:22:00] And what Fix It Fridays will do is they'll highlight a bias.
[00:22:03] Jonathan Blau: Uh, that we have either [00:22:05] cognitive or emotional or, or something that's going on current event wise that [00:22:10] investors should be aware of how it can influence, uh, them to be making decisions [00:22:15] that might be against their interest. Uh, so not only how to identify, but how to overcome it. And [00:22:20] those are usually be maybe 3 to 5 minutes of just me coming out and sharing, sharing our [00:22:25] thoughts about those with you.
[00:22:26] Jonathan Blau: Uh, and then once a month, we'll have, uh, The, uh, the, the, the [00:22:30] traditional crazy wealthy podcast, which should be anywhere from 30 to 60 minutes long. [00:22:35] And we welcome you to, uh, to like and, uh, and share our podcast. You'll be [00:22:40] able to find it on our website, uh, which is fusionfamilywealth. com under the [00:22:45] podcast section.
[00:22:46] Jonathan Blau: And you'll also be able to find it on all the major outlets where [00:22:50] podcasts are available, uh, from Spotify to Apple, uh, et cetera. So, [00:22:55] uh, you can also, um, find us at. Crazy wealthy [00:23:00] podcast.com. So thanks, thanks for listening. We really look forward to, uh, to [00:23:05] engaging with you on a monthly basis and, uh, hearing the feedback.[00:23:10]
[00:23:12] Jonathan Blau: Hi honey. I just, Hey, what's up? [00:23:15] I just finished, uh, our inaugural podcast for Crazy Wealthy and, uh, excited to [00:23:20] get it off the ground. So, um, so that's, that's what's up.
[00:23:23] Amy Blau: So tell me what you think you're going to be [00:23:25] doing in this whole podcast.
[00:23:27] Jonathan Blau: Well, like I said, uh, in the beginning, we want to, we [00:23:30] want to, uh, illuminate and demystify the complexities that are involved with [00:23:35] financial decision making.
[00:23:35] Jonathan Blau: And you know how we do that. We talk about all of the innate human [00:23:40] nature based behaviors that cause us to go, uh, to go off, off, uh, [00:23:45] in, in directions that are against our, our financial interests.
[00:23:48] Amy Blau: Oh, believe me, I'm [00:23:50] so excited for the rest of the world to hear [00:23:55] all the bits of knowledge that you have, and I'm excited for someone else to be [00:24:00] hearing about this all the time besides me.
[00:24:04] Jonathan Blau: Well, so am [00:24:05] I, to be honest with you, because hopefully I won't hear the real time criticism then. [00:24:10]
[00:24:10] Amy Blau: That's true. That's true. To be honest, I have no time for this today. I'm off to my [00:24:15] next activity. So you keep. Telling the world all about behavioral [00:24:20] finance.
[00:24:21] Jonathan Blau: Okay. And do me a favor, just start putting into practice some of the things I teach [00:24:25] the world.
[00:24:25] Amy Blau: You got it. It's not taking out the garbage on Sunday [00:24:30] night and you have a
[00:24:34] Voice Over: [00:24:35] deal. Thank you for tuning in to another episode of the [00:24:40] crazy wealthy podcast for more insights, resources. And to sign up for our [00:24:45] newsletter, visit crazy wealthy podcast. com until then stay [00:24:50] crazy wealthy.[00:24:55]
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